Experts predict impact of Supreme Court ruling

United States Supreme Court

Health IT will stay in high demand

WASHINGTON – With the Supreme Court decision on the health reform law expected for delivery by the end of June, more policymakers, experts and stakeholders have been vocal about their predictions of the outcome.

Marilyn Tavenner, Acting Administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) at a June 7 session of the Accountable Care Organization Summit was optimistic the ruling would support the Affordable Care Act (ACA). CMS had no plans to slow down on its implementation of current programs and pilots, she told the audience.

"We are full steam ahead," she said. "We think the Supreme Court will make the right decision."

Eric Zimmerman, a healthcare attorney and a partner at the Washington, D.C. law firm, McDermott Will & Emery, predicts that if the individual mandate and perhaps even the Medicaid portions of the law were struck down it would have a negative financial impact on healthcare providers.

"It’s a very big deal for a lot of reasons," Zimmerman said in a May 31 webinar on the subject. "But I say that it’s probably the least stressful of the potential outcomes that healthcare providers could face."

There was a deal made with the Obama administration and with Democrats in Congress, who controlled Congress at the time the ACA was passed, Zimmerman said. The deal was that the hospital community particularly, would absorb approximately $150 billion in reimbursement cuts, mostly Medicare reimbursement cuts in exchange for the expectation that they would get $30 million in new insured lives – insured lives that they are presently providing services to without any expectation of compensation.

"With these citizens now becoming insured whether it’s through private insurance or through Medicaid, hospitals would expect, starting in 2014, to start to be paid for these services," Zimmerman said. "So if the individual mandate and/or the Medicaid portions of the law are struck down, that is a violation of the deal, if you will, and all of a sudden hospitals and other service providers are providing these services, having absorbed the cuts without the expectation of the additional revenues."

Joel Michaels, also at McDermott Will & Emery, head of the firm's health advisory practice said states could move forward in a substantive way if parts or all of the law were struck down. "I think the states will take a crack at it," Michaels said. "They could do that through the creation of exchanges. There are already some states that have done that."

Douglas Hastings, partner and chair of the board of directors for the law firm of Epstein, Becker & Green in Washington, D.C., who spoke at the June 7 Accountable Care Organization Summit, said ACOs are unrelated to what's being challenged in the Supreme Court decision. "The underlying issues driving us to accountable care will be the same as they were before," he said.

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